As COP29 approaches, the spotlight is on the presidency’s action agenda, and one crucial topic is notably absent: a commitment to phasing out fossil fuels. Given past promises made at previous COPs, this omission raises concerns about the future of climate action.

Reflecting on Past COP Commitments

In recent years, there has been a growing focus on transitioning away from fossil fuels. At COP26 in Glasgow, a historic agreement was reached to “phase down” coal, marking the first time fossil fuels were directly mentioned in the conference’s final declaration. This was followed by COP27 in Egypt, where discussions deepened around the need for stronger action against all fossil fuels, not just coal. And at last year’s COP28 in Dubai, we saw the firmest language yet, with the conference pledging to ‘phase out’ fossil fuels altogether.

This momentum was expected to build, but COP29’s agenda avoids direct reference to phasing out fossil fuels, even as the world acknowledges the urgent need to reduce their use to limit global warming.

Why the Fossil Fuel Phase-Out is Missing

Several factors could explain why COP29’s agenda is sidestepping the issue of phasing out fossil fuels. One likely reason is the political and economic challenges faced by countries that are heavily dependent on oil, gas, and coal. Nations that rely on fossil fuel exports, or those where energy security is tightly bound to fossil fuel use, may resist binding commitments that could disrupt their economies. For these countries, the transition to renewables is seen as a complex and long-term process that cannot be rushed without significant economic and social consequences.

Geopolitically, the ongoing energy security concerns, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, have also shifted focus back to fossil fuels as nations scramble to ensure stable energy supplies. Additionally, the influence of the fossil fuel industry on global economies and policies remains strong.

The Importance of Keeping Fossil Fuels on the Agenda

While COP29 may be downplaying the fossil fuel phase-out, this does not mean the issue will disappear. The exclusion of this topic is a reminder that real climate progress depends on hard political choices and compromises. For the world to successfully transition to a low-carbon future, nations must come together to confront the economic, social, and geopolitical complexities of fossil fuel reliance. At COP29 and beyond, it will be crucial to keep fossil fuel phase-out at the forefront of climate discussions, ensuring that it remains a central part of any meaningful action plan.

There is ongoing debate about when exactly peak oil will occur, with some experts predicting it could happen within the next decade, while others believe it may take longer. Regardless of the timing, it’s widely accepted that fossil fuels will still have a role to play in the energy transition. As renewable technologies scale up and energy storage solutions improve, oil, gas, and even coal are likely to be part of a broader mix of energy sources for some time. The transition will involve balancing fossil fuel use with the development of cleaner technologies like wind, solar, and hydrogen, ensuring energy security while gradually reducing emissions.

Conclusion: A Missed Opportunity or a Pause for Recalibration?

COP29 presents a critical moment for climate negotiations. While the omission of the fossil fuel phase-out from this year’s agenda is concerning, it could also signal an opportunity for recalibration. Perhaps the COP29 presidency is avoiding bold declarations in favour of more subtle negotiations behind the scenes. However, the urgency of the climate crisis demands more than just talk – it requires immediate, tangible actions.

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